Portugal again had a daily variation of cases below 1%. It was in this framework that the world began to look at South Korea as an example, a country that even started with a very high number of cases, but which ended up controlling the outbreak effectively.
The evolution of the number of infected with Covid-19 in Portugal is noticeably below the evolution seen in countries with the most serious situation, such as China, Italy, Spain or Iran.
(Sorry for the repetition, but this sentence is mandatory: these numbers are cyclical, the trend of stabilization or reduction can be reversed at any time.)
Let’s go to the absolute numbers: Portugal had 234 new cases today, 136 more than yesterday. The relationship between this indicator and the daily variation, 0.9% allows us to assess whether the day was more positive or more negative with regard only to the number of infected people, again, in the same phase of the outbreak. When we compare ourselves with other countries, as long as or more than we have with over 100 cases, we see 5 countries with more optimistic indicators – marked in the graph in yellow – and 11 countries with the most negative results – marked in blue. Bahrain and Japan presented, on the 60th day, numbers of new cases not very different from the Portuguese numbers, but had higher daily variations, which ends up marking the upward trend of the case evolution line in these two countries.
As for the line that records deaths, a tendency towards slowdown in the growth rate of the Portuguese curve, which maintains a comfortable distance from the lines that compare the outbreak in other countries. It should be noted that the number of deaths in Italy, at this stage, had already skyrocketed, as well as in Spain, France, China, Iran, the United Kingdom and most of the countries with which it is possible to make this comparison. Germany, Sweden, the United States and Canada are some of the countries that had a more positive situation than Portugal at the beginning of the outbreak but were unable to control the numbers in the same way.
In the accumulated values, at the point where we are, 52 days from the 10th death, the 1163 accumulated deaths in Portugal place us between Sweden and Indonesia. In fact, the route of the Portuguese line, in the last few days, is not very different from the line of Indonesia; Portugal has higher accumulated numbers, but with lower growth, which gradually brings the two lines closer together.
But are we past the worst moment? If you look at the graph below, where instead of analyzing the accumulated numbers, we average the values of the last seven days (which mitigates the effects of days with abnormal peaks, whether high or low), we realize that the alternation between more positive days and less positive days seem to lead us to a new stagnation period, the third ‘plateau’ since the outbreak began. The next few days will be essential to understand whether this trend continues, whether we are going to return to a downward trend or whether, on the contrary, the beginning of the deflation has negatively affected contagions.
In this register, Sweden has had a gradual but ascending trajectory and, in this phase, it already had an average number of new cases higher than Portugal.
The 19 deaths recorded today negatively affect the average record of the last seven days. Even so, the Portuguese line has had a more consistent decreasing record than the line of new diagnosed cases. In the last 10 days, the average value of deaths decreased from 27 to 13.