With Selic at the lowest level in history, FGTS profitability exceeds fixed income



The Service Guarantee Fund (FGTS), which has historically lost in profitability to inflation and all types of investment, has become one of the best applications for workers when compared to other fixed income alternatives.

The shareholder remunerates at a rate of 3% per year and thus already ties with Selic, exceeds the savings account, which pays savers 70% of Selic, and the average yield of the Bank Deposit Certificate (CDB), of 85 % of CDI, on which Income Tax (IR) is still levied.

The advantage of the FGTS yield over other investments may increase even more in June, when the Copom should make another cut in the basic interest rate, from 0.50 or 0.75 percentage points, to 2.50% or 2, 25% per year, according to the expectations of financial market analysts. In January, for comparison purposes, the CDI yielded 0.38% to the investor. Now in May, with the most recent drop in the Selic rate, the CDI started paying 0.23%. FGTS, in turn, yielded 0.25%.

Such comparisons serve to show that, within the universe of fixed income, leaving money stuck in the fund can be a good option. A Caixa Econômica Federal program has been in force since last year, allowing workers to withdraw portions of their FGTS balance on their birthday. The government’s objective, with the program, is to inject resources into the country’s weak economy.

According to Austin Rating’s chief economist, Alex Agostini, for the worker who can get through the current crisis without having to use his FGTS balance, the best thing he does is to leave the money standing there.

“FGTS today is a good application because it is giving 3% a year and its rule does not change with the Selic and savings movements. So, the fund will have at least 0.50% of real profitability in the year (discounting inflation) ”, predicts the economist. He projects that inflation should close 2020 at around 2.50% and the Selic rate at 2.25% per year.

In January, when the Selic was at 4.50% per year, the CDI yielded 0.38% per month; the CDB, 0.32%; savings, 0.26% and FGTS, 0.25%.

In May, when the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank (BC) reduced the Selic rate to 3% per year, the CDI paid 0.23% per month; the CDB, 0.20%; savings, 0.17%; and FGTS, 0.25%. It is worth noting that, in the case of the CDB, the IR rate varies according to the time of application.

For June, the month in which Austin Rating projects that the Selic will drop 0.75 percentage point, to 2.25% per year, the CDI should yield 0.19% per month, the CDB will pay 0.16%, savings will yield 0.13% and FGTS, 0.25% per month. All CDI and CDB returns were calculated based on an IR rate of 22.5%.

Also, according to Agostini, in December 2019, when the Selic was at 4.50% per year, a worker who had also invested R $ 1,000 in CDI, CDB, savings and FGTS, in December this year, after 12 months , would have earned returns of 2.31% at CDI, 1.06% at CDB, 2.04% at savings and 3.00% at FGTS.

When calculations are made considering the Selic of May, from 3% per year, and assuming that it will be reduced in June to 2.25% per year, thus remaining until May 2021, the yield of R $ 1,000 in the CDI will be 1.83%. In CDB it will be 1.56%, in savings, 1.58%, and in FGTS, 3%. The profitability of all investments does not take inflation into account. If the IPCA rate were discounted, the yield would be even lower and, in some cases, even negative.

According to Caixa Econômica Federal, at the end of 2018, the total assets of the FGTS were R $ 529.2 billion – the bank closes the balance sheet of the fund of the previous year always in August of the subsequent year. The 2019 balance sheet will be closed only in August this year.

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